NCAA Finals: Connecticut Huskies vs. San Diego State Aztecs Preview

68 teams are down to 2, and it's the UConn Huskies looking for their fifth national championship against the San Diego State Aztecs, who made it past the Round of 16 for the first time in program history. UConn has looked like a monster in this tournament with a point differential of +103 through their first five tournament games—the 6th most all time. The Huskies come into this game favored by 7.5 points, which is tied for the largest spread for a title game since 1999 when the Huskies pulled off the biggest NCAA Championship Game upset (since college basketball lines started being recorded in 1985) as 9.5-point underdogs against a Duke team that had the highest tournament margin of victory entering the Finals (+126). Is UConn a lock to win another blowout, or can the Aztecs keep the game close enough to turn it into a coin flip? Let's break it down.

Why UConn will cover -7.5

The Huskies have enjoyed a noticeable size advantage over most teams in the tournament, as their shortest starter is 6'5", and that will remain true against an Aztec team with 5'10" Darrion Trammell and 6'2" Lamont Butler. The Huskies have the luxury of bringing 7'2" freshman Donovan Clingan off their bench, who is quickly maturing and made some impact plays in their win over Miami. Though UConn finished just 4th in the Big East this season and lost to Marquette in the conference tournament semifinals, they are undefeated in non-conference play. Teams that have yet to chase G Jordan Hawkins around screens or tried to slow down F Adama Sanogo have found themselves down by double-digits before figuring out any answers. UConn coach Dan Hurley also has a deep playbook of half-court sets for UConn to find open shots, which can take defenses time to calibrate. UConn should be able to blitz San Diego State from the tip-off, and their skill advantage should be enough to keep the Aztecs at arm's length. Given the expected adjustment period for the Aztecs, and the fact that they have dialed up the pressure in second halves, we like taking UConn -4.5 at halftime better than the full game -7.5 spread. No 5-seed has ever won an NCAA Tournament, and the Aztecs' storybook run should stop here.
How to bet the UConn Huskies: UConn -4.5 first-half spread

Why SDSU will cover and have a chance to win

Despite advancing to the finals for the first time in program history, this Aztecs team is not a complete surprise, as they have won at least 20 games in every season since hiring coach Brian Dutcher in 2017. They were 30-2 in the 2019-20 season and were in line for a top seed before the tournament was canceled due to COVID. In the new era of college basketball, where a lot of top talent is exploring overseas or semi-pro options, mid-majors have been increasingly competitive. The Aztecs overcame skill gaps against Alabama and Creighton by amping up and maintaining ball pressure in the second half with their deep bench. This should be especially effective against UConn, who lack a true ball handler as they average 12.9 turnovers per game. SDSU has combined tough defense with zagging against the analytic trend of prioritizing three-pointers and layups. The Aztecs have been able to handle drop coverage defense by feasting in the midrange, and that's the same playbook that UConn has been using throughout the tournament. With athletic and versatile defenders Nathan Mesah and Aguek Arop, the Aztecs should be able to slow down the Huskies and turn this game into another rock fight.
How to bet the SDSU Aztecs: SDSU -7.5 and sprinkle a smaller play on their +300 moneyline

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