Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (Sunday 8:20 ET)

The Packers are on a 4-game winning streak and can lock up home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs if they beat the Vikings this week and the lowly Lions in week 18. Their last loss was in week 11 against the Vikings in a quarterback duel where Aaron Rodgers threw for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns and Kirk Cousins threw for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns. With the Packers’ end-of-season run, Aaron Rodgers is making a repeat-MVP bid (he is currently oddsmakers’ favorite) as he leads the NFL with a 110.8 passer rating. Rodger’s WR1 Davante Adams will probably set a new personal record this game, as he is only 24 yards away from setting a new career-high for yards in a season (he had 1,386 yards in 2018). The forecast for this game is a frigid 12 degrees and winds at 13 mph (no precipitation), but as we discussed in a previous issue of Streaks Weekly, low temperatures don’t affect expected scoring output, though high winds above 20 mph do. If the winds pick up, this could force both teams to rely on their rushing attack. Packers RB Aaron Jones isn’t on the IR right now, but he recently recovered from an MCL sprain and limped off the field last week, so RB AJ Dillon could get the bulk of carries for the Packers if Jones is limited.

The Vikings recently got the good news that Dalvin Cook, whose 115-yard performance was key in their victory against the Packers, is cleared to play from the new COVID health and safety protocols, with quarantine time being reduced from 10 to 5 days for positive tests.) Cook averages the 3rd most scrimmage yards per game (117) out of all players in the NFL this season. Kirk Cousins has put together another strong season as he will eclipse 4,000 passing yards in a season for the 6th time in his career in this game. Cousins has done a great job avoiding negative plays this season, as he has been sacked the fewest times (25) out of any starter in the NFL while he is ranked 3rd in INT% (Rodgers is ranked 1st). Vikings WR Justin Jefferson had a monster performance in the Week 11 win against the Packers, with 169 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and the Vikings will probably need another big passing day to keep pace. The most significant difference between these teams is their defense, as the Packers give up the 11th fewest yards per game (331.3) while the Vikings give up the 4th most (379.0). The Vikings are desperate and fighting for their playoff lives, but the Packers are undefeated at Lambeau this season which bodes well if they can lock up home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Spread: Packers are favored by 6.5 points

Over/under: 48

Preview Question: Packers WR Davante Adams is 2nd out of all wide receivers in fantasy points this season (302.2), while Vikings WR Justin Jefferson is 3rd (296.5). Which receiver will have more fantasy points (ESPN Standard Scoring) in this game?

Pro-tip: The Vikings are especially vulnerable to teams with good receivers, as they give up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs per game (41.7) out of any team in the NFL. However, Justin Jefferson had a monster 37.2 fantasy point performance against the Packers in Week 11.