Looking for Upsets in the Round of 16
Fairleigh Dickinson was a +2100 (!) underdog against Purdue, and Princeton was a +700 dog against Arizona, so there is a lot of money to be won if you can spot an upset.
The first two rounds of March Madness saw Fairleigh Dickinson become just the second 16 seed to knock off a 1-seed, and then Princeton become just the 2nd 15th seed to make it to the Round of 16 after dispatching Arizona and Missouri. With more alternatives to NCAA Division I for NBA prospects (like playing abroad or in the G league), there are better chances for smaller programs with chemistry and continuity advantages against elite programs.
Fairleigh Dickinson was a +2100 (!) underdog against Purdue, and Princeton was a +700 dog against Arizona, so there is a lot of money to be won if you can spot the upset. In this post, we'll take a look at the four matchups where the underdog moneyline will double your wager (+200) or better in the Round of 16, and then we'll rate the upset chance with our highly analytic emoji scale of how we think the fans of the favorite team should feel before the game:
Worried 😟 (decent chance of an upset)
Nervous 😬 (moderate chance of an upset)
Safe 😌 (slight chance of an upset)
Florida Atlantic Owls (+200) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-240)
Tennessee showed their ability to make games ugly against Duke, and their size and physicality on the perimeter (including SF Julian Phillips is projected as a late first-round pick in the NBA Draft) will also pose problems for the FAU Owls. However, Tennessee's offense is less reliable after losing Zakai Zeigler to injury, and as the Virginia Cavaliers have shown, late-game mishaps can sink a favorite when they don't score enough points to put away an inferior opponent. The playbook for the Owls will resemble how FDU beat Purdue by spreading them out and making shots. The Owls' 5.5 points on the spread are especially valuable given that this is expected to be a defensive matchup with the projected total line set at 130.5 (the lowest of all Round of 16 games), but Tennessee's size should be enough to keep the Owls in their roost this game.
How should Tennessee fans feel?
Nervous 😬 (moderate chance of an upset)
San Diego State Aztecs (+280) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-340)
Alabama's coach Nate Oats game plans based on analytic efficiency—get to the rim (54.1% shooting inside the arc, 33rd in the country) and earn free throws (23.0 attempts per game, 14th) or shoot three-pointers (29.4 attempts per game, 4th). San Diego State matches up reasonably well against this type of offense, as they are good at limiting opportunities at the rim in transition and half-court sets. The Aztecs also have some versatile defenders like Aguek Arop, who they can put on Alabama's Brandon Miller (projected top-3 pick in the NBA Draft). There will be three-point opportunities for Alabama, but if the Aztecs can turn this game into a jump-shooting contest, they'll have a puncher's chance to pull off the upset.
How should Alabama fans feel?
Worried 😟 (decent chance of an upset)
Miami Hurricanes (+265) vs. Houston Cougars (-320)
The Houston Cougars were down by 10 at the half against Auburn, but then they turned on another gear and showed why they're the presumptive favorites to win the tournament, outscoring Auburn 50 to 23 in the second half. The Cougars' defense can be suffocating at times, as they've held opponents to just 36.1% shooting this season (best in the nation) and come up with 8.1 steals per game (35th). If Miami's lead guard, Isaiah Wong, can handle the initial ball pressure and get the Canes into their sets, they could utilize the passing of Jordan Miller and make the Cougars' defense scramble. Houston's shot selection leaves something to be desired at times, which gives Miami a chance to keep the game close going into crunch time, where anything can happen.
How should Houston fans feel?
Nervous 😬 (moderate chance of an upset)
Princeton Tigers (+420) vs. Creighton Bluejays (-540)
After navigating two challenging opponents in NC State and Baylor, Creighton is the heaviest favorite in the Round of 16 against the Princeton Tigers. The Tigers are trying to write a sequel to the Saint Peter's Peacocks Cinderella story from last season and become just the second 15-seed to advance to the Round of 8. Princeton's versatile forward Tosan Evbuomwan could pose some problems for Creighton by dragging 7'1" Ryan Kolkbrenner out of the post and open up drives to the rim. However, Creighton is a more balanced team than Missouri and won't take the Tigers lightly, as it appears Arizona did. Creighton's biggest weakness is their lack of depth as they use just a 6-man rotation, but with five days of rest, that shouldn't be an issue.
How should Creighton fans feel?
Safe 😌 (slight chance of an upset)
So for the Round of 16, our favorite underdog plays are the +280 moneyline for the San Diego State Aztecs and the +5.5 spread for the Florida Atlantic Owls. If you want to bet on one of the underdogs to pull off the upset in the Round of 16, you should use a promotional offer like a Risk-Free Bet of Up To $1,000 with BetMGM. Everyone could use a little insurance to navigate the madness of this year's tournament. Good luck!
