College Basketball Semifinal Preview
Championship weekend is here for perhaps the most unpredictable College Basketball Tournament of all time. This is the first semifinals in history without a 1, 2, or 3-seed, so we hope you have been betting on the underdogs! With just three games left and lots of money coming in, the lines are sharp. For the final weekend of March Madness, it might just be worth betting on what you want to happen, but that won't stop us from trying to find an edge anyway!
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. San Diego State Aztecs
The action will start on Saturday at 6 PM ET with the most unexpected semifinal matchup in Tournament history between the 9-seed Florida Atlantic Owls and the 5-seed San Diego State Aztecs. These teams have shown the importance of a deep bench in March, as they both run 9-man rotations, allowing them to keep games close and have fresher legs in the closing minutes. The Aztecs have been a more defense-oriented team, while the Owls are more balanced.
The Aztecs make their living on offense with analytically inefficient mid-range shots, which some teams are willing to concede. This is the Aztec's 3rd opponent in a row with a 7-footer down low, and they were able to find success against Alabama's Bediako and Creighton's Kalkbrenner, who play drop coverage on screens. FAU's 7-footer, Vladislav Goldin, is more versatile on defense and can be an effective mid-range defender, presenting a new type of obstacle for the Aztecs to navigate. The X-factor for the Aztecs is G Lamont Butler, who led the team with 18 points against Creighton and can find open teammates when the opposition focuses on him.
An important dynamic in this game will be the Owls' ability to generate open looks from three, as they have made 9.6 threes per game this year (12th in the nation) on 36.5% shooting. They might have to look to pull the trigger quickly in transition before the Aztecs' defense can set up, as the Aztecs are fantastic at closing out and running teams off the three-point line, as they have held opponents to just 27.7% shooting (2nd best in the nation) from behind the arc. A bellwether for the Owls will be G Johnell Davis, who can fake a three and put the ball on the floor to make defenses scramble.
This game feels tough to pick, given these teams' play styles and depth. We think it's a coin flip as to which team will prevail, so we're looking to play the total instead. While the under seems like an obvious play, we think these teams will stay fresh with their deep benches and do just enough to get this game over the total of 131.5.
Streaks Pick: Over 131.5
UConn Huskies vs. Miami Hurricanes
The UConn Huskies have been a buzzsaw in the tournament, winning every game by at least 15 points and holding the vaunted Gonzaga offense to a season-low 54 points in their last game. Their offense has also looked explosive, punishing teams beneath the basket and outrunning them in transition. In half-court sets, the Huskies can have G Jordan Hawkins maneuver around a screen for a catch-and-shoot three, where he has made a living in the tournament, shooting over 50% from beyond the arc. The Huskies will also have a size advantage in this game——while the Hurricanes can throw Norchad Omier on UConn's leading scorer, Adama Sanogo, it will be hard for them to deal with the 7-footer Clingan and forward Alex Karaban.
The Hurricanes made a surprise run to the Elite 8 last year and have shown that was no fluke. Miami again has one of the most versatile offenses in College basketball, with three different guards that can create their own shots in Isiah Wong, Jordan Miller, and Nigel Pack. Jordan Miller showed his versatility in their last game, shooting a perfect 7 for 7 from the field and 13 for 13 from the free-throw line for 27 points, and will create a similar paradox for the Huskies as he uses a polished repertoire of moves as opposed to athleticism to find his offense, and will force Karaban do defend in situations where he's uncomfortable. If 'Canes coach Jim Larranaga can force Huskies coach Dan Hurley to trade some offense for defense by playing defensive-oriented guards Nahiem Alleyne or Hassan Diarra, Miami will have a shot to win this game. After pulling out wins as a 7.5-point dog against Houston, and then as a 3.5-point dog against Texas, they will have no shortage of confidence as a 5.5-point dog against UConn.
While the safe bet is taking the Huskies here, as they seem to be peaking at the right time, this tournament has been about finding underdogs who have a chance to win, and we think the Hurricanes have a shot. With just three games remaining in the tournament, we'll take perhaps the last opportunity to bet on the madness here.
Streaks Pick: Miami Hurricanes ML (+200)
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