Game Preview: San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (Thursday - 8:20 ET)
The 49ers have the momentum, but the Titans are at home for this game of smashmouth football; who you got?
The 49ers and Titans both look like they're headed to the playoffs (FiveThirtyEight gives them 81% and 94% chances, respectively), so this game will be a good warmup as they try to improve their position and potentially gain home-field advantage. These teams are built in a similar old-school style as both have top-10 defenses and focus their offense around establishing the run game: the Titans average 142.3 rushing yards per game (4th most in the NFL), and the 49ers average 126.6 (7th). The Titans have been trying to tread water while they wait for their star RB Derrick Henry (who is somehow 5th in the NFL in rushing yards despite missing 6 games) to return, as they started the season 8-2 but have now lost three of their last four games. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has struggled in the previous four games, throwing 2 TDs to 6 INTs as he has been missing top WRs AJ Brown and Julio Jones. The good news is that it looks like AJ Brown will be activated off the IR for this game. RB D'Onta Foreman has been filling in for Henry and had the best game of his career last week against the Steelers with 135 all-purpose yards. This week, he will be leaned on again to be the Titans' offensive engine if his ankle doesn't bother him.
The 49ers, on the other hand, have been picking up momentum, winning five of their past six games to get themselves into the playoff picture. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has avoided injuries and played well recently, with a 90+ QB rating in all of his past 8 games. The 49ers' offense has been excellent when it counts, as they handily lead the NFL in red-zone TD% (73.8%, while the second-place Bucs are at 65%). WR Deebo Samuel getting some rushing touches in the red zone has added a new wrinkle that opposing defenses have to account for, as he has scored a rushing touchdown in 5 straight games. RB Elijah Mitchell has missed the last two games with a knee injury and concussion but could be ready for Thursday night. If he can't play or is limited, the 49ers will continue to give the majority of touches to backup RB Jeffrey Wilson, who had a big game last week with 110 rushing yards and a TD against the Falcons. TE George Kittle continues to show he is a generational talent, as he just passed Antonio Gates and Rob Gronkowski for the 3rd most receiving yards among TEs in their first five seasons all-time (Kittle currently has 4,429). On defense, a big part of the 49ers game plan will be based around DE Nick Bosa (2nd in the NFL with 15 sacks) getting after Ryan Tannehill, who has been sacked 41 times this season, 2nd most of any quarterback. Fortunately, both of these teams have avoided major Omicron outbreaks, so this should be one of the better games of the week. The 49ers have the momentum, but the Titans are at home for this game of smashmouth football; who you got?
Spread: 49ers favored by 3 points
Over/under: 43.5
Note: This game will be aired on NFL Network, so if it isn't on local television (FOX), look for a streaming option that has the expressed written consent of the NFL.
Preview Questions: How many receiving yards will 49ers TE George Kittle have in this game? AND How many fantasy points will 49ers WR Deebo Samuel have in this game?
Pro tip: While the Titans give up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers (26.2), they are much better against opposing tight ends, as they have given up the 4th fewest receiving yards to TEs this season (496). Therefore, going under the average for Kittle and over the average for Samuel seems like the best bet for this game.